Market Update – Fall 2018

In stark contrast to the Real Estate market in Vancouver, the sales activity on Gabriola is remaining strong. In the months of August and September there were 9 sales each month ranging in price from $149,000 to 1 sale over $1 Million – a waterfront home that sold for $1,132,000. The median price was $375,000 (1/2 below this price point and 1/2 above this price point) for this same period and with the exception of 2 sales, all were sold for $525,000 or less

The homes for sale inventory is at a record low with only 19 homes on the market as of today. 9 are over $800,000 and the balance are primarily in the $300,000 – $400,000 price point.

Vacant land is also at an all-time low with only 9 properties on the market which range in price from $92,500 to $1,400,000. Since January 1 of this year, there have been 45 sales of vacant land ranging from $68,000 – $685,000 with a median sale price of $125,000.  With the exception of 4 sales, all of the bare land sales have been $400,000 or less.

The future for Gabriola real Estate looks strong and I expect that we will see pricing remaining consistent throughout the fall and winter. Sales typically slow down at this time of the year and it appears that the trend is prevailing. Last year we had 18 home sales in Sept – Dec and we should expect roughly the same this year.

The Real Estate market on Vancouver Island has transitioned to a ‘balanced market’ with approximately 3 1/2 months of inventory on the market (425 current listings and 117 sales in September). We are influenced by the Vancouver market which has seen a drop in sales by up to 40% and this trend is slowly making its way to Vancouver Island. Total home sales last year for the same time was 154, which represents a drop this year of 24%.

I don’t see prices dropping significantly but we may see a 5% adjustment through the winter. All indications point to a strong 2019 and I believe will recover any losses and see an increase in the single digits (5-9%) in the first 6 months of 2019. The higher priced homes in this area ($1.0M+) have taken the brunt of the drop in both price and unit sales and it will take a bit longer for this market to recover.

The speculation tax combined with the foreign buyers tax and the changes to the tenant act have all contributed to the ‘cooling’ of the market in all major centers which has flowed through to the Nanaimo market. Fortunately this area is considered very desirable and I believe that we won’t see any further drop in volume or a significant drop in pricing. In the under $650,000 price point, properly priced homes are getting offers and in about 20% of the cases, multiple offers.  The condo market has remained strong and the bare land inventory is also low.